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Right to Abortion Supported by 70% of Hungarians

The Hungarian population continues to support the right to have an abortion, provided that the age of the fetus has not reached the 20th week, according to an Ipsos poll. The polling company included 27 countries in its latest survey.

In Hungary, 70% believe that abortion should be legal in most or all cases, while 14% think that abortion should be illegal in most or all cases. Internationally, the survey found an average of 59% for the former and 26% for the latter.

81% of the adults polled in Hungary said that abortion should be permitted if the pregnancy endangers the woman’s life or health, a result nearly identical with the international average of 80%.

The poll also found that 82% of Hungarians felt that abortion should be legal even in the case of rape, and 81% supported it if the fetus has a serious disability or health issues. These were noticeably higher than the international averages of 70% and 67%, respectively. [444]

After Putin and Lukashenko, Orbán Most Disliked by Ukrainians

A new poll conducted by Ukrainian pollster Rating has found that after the Russian and Belarusian Presidents, Ukrainians feel most negatively about Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, reports Mandiner.

The survey revealed that 98% of Ukrainians have a completely negative opinion about Vladimir Putin, but Alexander Lukashenko is not far behind at 95%.

By comparison, far fewer Ukrainians dislike the Hungarian head of government: 33% of respondents have completely negative feelings about him, while 20% feel somewhat negatively about him. 15% of them have somewhat positive feelings for Orbán, and only 5% feel completely positive towards him.

20% of Ukrainians were unfamiliar with the Hungarian Prime Minister, and 7% of them found it hard to answer the question.

Survey respondents felt most positively about Polish President Andrzej Duda (92%), British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (89%), and US President Joe Biden (89%).

1,200 people were interviewed by phone in every county in Ukraine except for Russian-occupied Crimea and Donetsk Basin, as well as in areas where the Ukrainian mobile network is currently inoperable because of the war. [444]

A Quarter of Hungarians Think Russia is Defending Itself by Attacking Ukraine

In the past two months, the number of Hungarians who consider Russia the aggressor in the Ukrainian war has been steadily and significantly declining, according to a new Publicus Institute poll reported on by Népszava. In previous polls, 64% of respondents thought of Russia as an aggressor in early March, compared to only 58% at the end of March and 56% now.

The survey reveals that 25% of Hungarians believe that Russia was defending itself by attacking Ukraine and launching the war.

Moreover, the article points out that the number of people satisfied with the government’s response to the war thus far has gone from 60% to 66% over the past few months.

72% of respondents answered in the negative to the question: “Would you support sanctions against Russia if it meant you would have to pay more for your energy costs?” But the answers were highly dependent on political affiliation: only 6% of Fidesz supporters were willing to make any sacrifice large or small, while 61% of opposition voters would be willing to do so.

However, the poll showed that Hungarians still identify with Western values, with a strong 62% majority agreeing that “Hungary traditionally belongs to the West in terms of values, and must therefore strive towards the West in the future.”

Very few respondents (5-18%) agreed that it would be in Hungary’s interest for the country to get closer to Russia and away from the European Union and the United States. [HVG]

Two-Thirds of Hungarians Want to Reduce Russian Energy Dependency as Soon as Possible

67% of Hungarians think that the EU should reduce its oil and gas dependency on Russia as soon as possible, reports Átlátszó. However, this was still far below the EU average of 85%, a new poll shows.

The European Commission conducted a comprehensive poll among EU citizens in April on support for EU responses to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The Portuguese were most in favor of cutting off Russian gas and oil, with nearly 100% of those surveyed believing that ending energy dependency on Russia was urgent. But a very high proportion of the population (over 90%) thought the same in Malta, Finland, the Netherlands, and Poland.

Comparatively, many fewer Hungarians were in support of the idea, which perhaps shouldn’t be a suprise when the Hungarian Prime Minister makes statements such as “it won’t help if we shut off Russian oil and gas and the Hungarian economy grinds to a halt three or four days later.”

Support for reducing Russia’s energy dependency was only lower than Hungary in Bulgaria and Slovakia, with 63% of the population of the former favoring the idea, and only 59% of the latter. [Átlátszó]

Závecz: Support for Fidesz Has Increased Since Elections

Hungary’s ruling Fidesz-KDNP coaltion increased its base of support since its victory in the parliamentary elections last month, according to the latest Závecz Research poll. Echoing the results of Medián’s own poll from a few days ago, the latest poll provides evidence of the well-known post-election “bandwagon” effect.

Fidesz would receive 60% of the vote if elections were held now, according to the poll, which also shows DK as the strongest opposition party at 11% support and Our Homeland at 7%, which was their share of the vote in the election.

Závecz’s results largely coincide with what Medián found, but with one difference: while Závecz had the left-wing DK more popular than the far-right Our Homeland party, these results were flipped in the Medián poll.

The other parties in the opposition were either on the verge of the threshold to enter Parliament, with Jobbik, Momentum, and MSZP each getting 5% support, or below it, with LMP at 3% and Dialogue and MKKP both at 1%.

Taking a closer look at the demographics of the poll, Fidesz appears to be strong and stable throughout the country. However, the smaller the settlement, the more popular the party is: the governing party has the support of 35% of the adult population in Budapest, 39% in county seats, 50% in other rural cities, and 54% in small towns.

A similar phenomenon can be seen in terms of educational attainment and age: the older and less-educated a voter is, the more likely they are to support Fidesz. [Telex]

Republikon: Fidesz Has Grown Support Since Election

Support for the political opposition continued to drop after suffering a brutal electoral loss and Fidesz securing another two-thirds majority in Parliament. The latest poll of party preferences by the Republikon Institute also shows that support for the governing parties has jumped since the April 3 election.

The poll revealed that 43% of the total population supported the ruling Fidesz-KDNP parties in April. DK was the most popular party in the opposition with 10% support, while Momentum was at 7%, Jobbik at 5%, and MSZP at 4% among this group. Dialogue and Our Homeland each won the support of 3% of the public, while LMP stood at 2% and MKKP at 1%.

However, among voters who had chosen a specific party to support, 55% declared their support for Fidesz-KDNP. This represented a large jump for the governing coalition, which was at 49% in Republikon’s March poll.

Meanwhile, the opposition continues to weaken among these voters, with DK at 12%, Momentum at 9%, Jobbik at 6%, and MSZP at 5%. Dialogue and Our Homeland were both at 4% support each, while LMP was at 3% and MKKP at 2%.

The poll was conducted between April 20-24 by telephone with 1,000 persons, was balanced for gender, age, educational attainment, and location for the adult population, and has a margin of error of 3.2%. [Telex]

Poll: Hungarian Public Perceives Inflation at 22%

Consumer prices rose 9.5% in April compared to the same time last year, according to official inflation data from the Central Statistical Office. However, in a poll of 1,000 households conducted by GKI Economic Research, Hungarians perceived a 22% price increase, the research institute stated.

The researchers noted that the public’s “perception” is not based on facts but rather on perception, which could be strongly influenced by recent events.

Over the past four years, the difference between official inflation and polling-based perceived inflation has been over 11% per month on average and continues to increase, writes GKI. [444]

Medián: Far-Right Our Homeland Now the Biggest Opposition Party

Median’s first opinion poll after the election on party preferences showed some remarkable results. The HVG-commissioned poll showed the governing Fidesz-KDNP coalition at 54% support, slightly higher than the 52% their party list received in the election, while the opposition stood at 34%, a decrease compared to their joint party list result of 36%.

Fidesz’s lead expanded to 57%, however, when respondents were asked which party they would vote for in “a soon-to-be-held election.”

But Our Homeland experienced a similar growth in support: after winning 5.88% of the party list vote, the far-right upstart party won over 9% of eligible voters, 8% of voters who have chosen a specific party, and 8% of the total voting population.

Support for Our Homeland among the entire population is just 1% higher than that of the Democratic Coalition, and 2% ahead of Momentum’s 6% support, although these differences are still within the margin of error. In addition, Our Homeland President László Toroczkai is the third-most popular politician among the entire voting population.

Medián notes that the phenomenon of Our Homeland’s rise is very similar to what was seen after Jobbik’s result in the 2009 European elections. At that time, Jobbik gained popularity after passing a certain threshold of support, as more people began to find it acceptable to openly express their sympathy for the formerly far-right party. [444]

Fidesz Voters Say Zelensky and USA More Responsible for War Than Putin

Fidesz voters prefer Putin to Western leaders, according to a Medián poll commissioned by 444.

On a 100-point scale, Hungary’s pro-government camp gives Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin the highest ratings among political leaders, 56 points and 47 points, respectively. Pope Francis is the only foreign leader who gets even higher marks from this group.

In addition, Fidesz supporters hold Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (74 out of 100 points) and the United States (75 out of 100 points) more responsible for the war in Ukraine than Vladimir Putin (70 out of 100 points).

The ratio is reversed among supporters of the political opposition. These voters blame Putin the most for the war (93 points), but they also say Viktor Orbán’s foreign policy (47 points) bears more responsibility than the Ukrainian leadership (39 points). [Telex]

Poll: Few Hungarians Follow the War or Have Sympathy for Ukraine

Hungarians are not particularly interested in the war taking place in Ukraine, and do not sympathize much with the besieged Ukrainians, according to a new Eurobarometer poll taken in the 27 EU Member States.

Regarding how frequently they follow the news of the war in Ukraine, only 30% of respondents from Hungary stated that they follow it regularly. This was the fourth-lowest proportion of all EU countries, with only Slovenia, France, and Belgium showing less interest.

The poll also found that only 34% of Hungarians “totally agreed” with the statement “I feel sympathy towards Ukrainians,” which was the lowest percentage among all 27 EU countries. On the other end was Sweden, with 79% of respondents in total agreement with the statement. [Azonnali]

43% of Hungarians Say Press Not Free in Hungary

A plurality of Hungarians believes that there is no press freedom in Hungary today and that the situation has deteriorated in the past few years, but Fidesz voters see things a little differently, according to a new poll conducted in the V4 countries by the Czech Economia media group.

43% of Hungarians surveyed said that the press is not free because of government interference in the work of journalists. 27% said it was somewhat free, while 30% felt that Hungarian media was completely free.

However, more than half of the Fidesz voters in the survey, 58%, believed that there was press freedom in Hungary, and only 15% thought that there wasn’t. [Telex]

Large Majority of Hungarians Want Renewable Energy Over Energy Dependence on Russia

More than three-fourths of Hungarians believe that the country should meet its energy needs at home and not be dependent on other countries, particularly Russian gas, according to a poll commissioned by Greenpeace and conducted by Policy Solutions and Závecz Research in the last week of March. [Telex]

In a separate poll also conducted in the last week of March, WWF Hungary conducted a nationwide, representative online survey to find out what Hungarians want from their decision-makers on environmental issues.

Their results showed that over 90% of internet users want the current government to prioritize protecting nature and the climate, and a large majority, regardless of place of residence, would like to see a separate ministry focusing on the environment to be set up. [Telex]

Three-Fourths of Opposition Voters Believe Gyurcsány Hurts Their Electoral Chances

Commissioned by 21 Research Center, the Iránytű Institute conducted a poll as to voters’ thoughts on the reasons for another two-thirds victory by Fidesz.

Among the questions were whether it would increase the opposition’s chances if Ferenc Gyurcsány retired from politics. Their research found that three-fourths of non-government voters felt that it would increase the opposition’s chances if the former prime minister was out of the picture.

But perhaps more surprising was that even 42% of DK voters agreed with this. Iránytű’s analysis showed that although DK voters like their party’s president, they understand that his presence turns off many voters and makes it impossible to reach certain people. [Népszava]

Donáth is Most Popular Opposition Politician, But Orbán is Most Popular Overall

Viktor Orbán is by far Hungary’s most popular politician, while Momuntum President Anna Donáth gets top honors on the opposition side, just barely beating out Gergely Karácsony, reports Magyar Hang on a poll of 1,850 people conducted by the Iránytű Institute.

The think tank asked people on a scale of 1-5 how satisfied they were with certain figures in key political roles. Converted to a 100-point scale, the following politicians ended up with the following scores:

  • Viktor Orbán 58
  • Anna Donáth 29
  • Gergely Karácsony 28
  • Péter Jakab 25
  • László Toroczkai 25
  • Klára Dobrev 25
  • Péter Márki-Zay 24
  • Ferenc Gyurcsány 13

[Magyar Hang]

Nézőpont: Opposition Voters Blame Gyurcsány and Márki-Zay Instead of United Opposition for Defeat

57% of active voters blame opposition politicians Ferenc Gyurcsány and Péter Márki-Zay alike for the united opposition’s defeat in the April 3 elections, according to a new poll by pro-government polling company Nézőpont, as reported in Magyar Nemzet.

46% of all active voters, and 25% of opposition voters, believe that the six-party opposition alliance was not the reason for the electoral defeat. [Telex]

Three Out of Ten Opposition Voters Believed Fidesz Propaganda About Péter Márki-Zay

picture of Péter Márki-Zay

The government’s unsubstantiated and flat-out false allegations about the political opposition during the campaign were so successful that even a significant number of opposition voters believed them, reports HVG360 on the results of a study by the Dimenzió Media Foundation.

A representative poll conducted in late March showed that a wide range of voters had encountered false political messages, but could not be convinced as to how real they were.

The results showed that, among other things, 30% of opposition voters believed that Péter Márki-Zay would lead Hungary into war. And those not attached to a specific party gave twice as much credit to the government’s character assassination attempts on the opposition’s prime ministerial candidate.

The poll sample also made clear that Hungarians’ right to be properly informed without influence has become seriously damaged since 2010. As Ferenc Vicsek, one of the authors of the report, put it:

It’s impossible to talk about free and democratic elections in a place where a significant portion of citizens, the proportion that significantly influences the election, are not exposed to the messages of some participants in a political competition, including those that refute the false statements said about them. The fact that these refutations do not even reach some voters is visible proof of how uniquely asymmetrical the Hungarian media system is.

The research did not take a look at those who had encountered responses to Fidesz’s claims, nor how those who had exposure to differing viewpoints eventually decided which ones were true. As a result, it cannot be determined to what extent these allegations influenced the final election results.

[Népszava][Photo: Péter Márki-Zay / Facebook]

Publicus: Fidesz and Opposition at 47% Each

picture of man voting

The campaign for tomorrow’s parliamentary election has become as tight as possible, with ruling Fidesz-KDNP and opposition United for Hungary both able to count on 47% support for their party lists from voters who are certain which party they will vote for, in a new Publicus Institute poll commissioned by Népszava.

While other polls have also showed a close battle, even Publicus has not shown a tie between the two sides until now.

The polling company’s last survey before the election also revealed that the opposition had a 5% lead over the governing parties in terms of their intention to take part in the election. Regarding overall turnout, 76% of respondents said they would definitely be going to the polls, and a further 9% claimed that they probably would.

Among all voters, Fidesz stands at 35%, United for Hungary is at 33%, and 28% of voters are still undecided.

Publicus head András Pulai said that about 5-7% of voters would only decide at the last minute whether they will vote at all.

[444]

Medián: Opposition Likely to Sweep Budapest

picture of Péter Márki-Zay and opposition leaders

The united opposition has a 14-point lead over ruling party Fidesz in Budapest, according to a new Medián poll. Hungary is set to go to the polls in two-days’ time to elect 199 representatives to the country’s National Assembly.

Medián’s latest poll was conducted in parallel with a separate survey published on Wednesday showing Fidesz with a dominating lead nationwide. Few respondents from the Hungarian capital were included in the national poll, they wrote.

The 1,000-person representative sample of voters was conducted between March 23-28 based on an “omnibus”-type survey, which showed the following level of support for each party in the capital:

  • United for Hungary coalition – 43%,
  • Fidesz-KDNP – 29%,
  • Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party – 6%,
  • Our Homeland – 3%.

Additionally, 19% of Budapest voters were either unable or unwilling to say who they planned to voter for, although 85% said they were planning to cast a vote, indicating a higher level of voter intent than the national average.

The polling company noted that although the survey did not take a look at each individual electoral district, the data suggest that it does not seem unrealistic for the joint opposition to make a clean sweep of all 18 electoral districts in Budapest.

Medián’s poll also asked respondents about mayoral preferences, with results showing that 50% of voters would re-election current Mayor Gergely Karácsony, while 31% would vote for a generic Fidesz candidate.

Karácsony’s support in the poll conforms with the 50.86% of the vote share that he won in the 2019 mayoral election, and is also a major improvement on his 35% level of support in 2020.

A similar 19% of respondents answered that they were either not sure of or wouldn’t say who they preferred as Budapest mayor when presented with the two options above.

[HVG]

Závecz: Fidesz Retains Slight Lead Over United Opposition List

picture of person voting

One week before Hungary’s parliamentary election, a new Závecz Research poll shows that nearly as many people want a change of government (42%) as they prefer the Orbán government to stay in power (44%), reports Telex.

The poll results suggest that the proportion is similar for those who don’t have a party preference, with an identical 26% each for both those who want the government to stay versus those who want it to go.

Opinions on whether to change the government or not are presumed to indicate how those with “unknown” party affilition will end up voting in the election. 64% of this group claim they’ve already made up their minds, but did not share their preferences with the polling company.

Just a week before Hungarians are set to go to the polls, support for ruling Fidesz-KDNP (41%) and the opposition coalition United for Hungary (39%) are also roughly the same size. The 2 percentage point difference is within the poll’s margin of error.

The polling company’s data also clearly indicate a high turnout for Sunday, with as many as 80% of eligible voters expected to cast a vote.

The Závecz Research poll was conducted between March 23-25 through interviews with 800 people by telephone. The sample group is considered representative of the Hungarian population over the age of 18, balanced by gender, age group, education level, and location, and an estimated margin of error at +/- 3.5%.

[HVG]

Undecided Voters Appear to Lean Opposition, But Will They Come Out to Vote?

picture of woman voting

In this close race, those who are certain of which party they will vote for are likely to take part in the election, which makes undecided voters even more important. Opinions about governing suggest that the opposition has a higher ‘reserve’ stored up among undecided voters. The question is whether these voters will go to the polls or not on April 3.

writes the Republikon Institute in the executive summary to its new report.

According to research conducted by the institute over the past three months, 51% of undecided voters are planning to go to the polls, while 34% said they would definitely be going.

Republikon’s analysis breaks down typical characteristics of Hungary’s undecided voters:

  • The size of a settlement does not play a part in determining where undecided voters are found.
  • Among women, their proportion is slightly higher (60-40).
  • Many of them are younger: 37% of undecided voters are under 40, and only 28% are over 60.
  • Level of education is an important factor: 51% of undecided voters have just a primary education, and 29% have a high school degree. Their proportion of college graduates is lower than average.

By definition, undecided voters do not choose a party, but answers to the question “Should the government stay or leave?” can provide a sense of which political side they will commit themselves to on election day.

In a 5,000-person Závecz poll conducted in January 2021 cited by Republikon, half of all undecided voters chose to answer the aforementioned question, with results showing that more of them open to the opposition (38%) than to the ruling party (12%).

In another large-scale survey, it turned out that undecided voters and those not wishing to reveal their party preferences were more angry at the entire elite than at the Orbán government specifically.

[444]