Steven N.Median’s first opinion poll after the election on party preferences showed some remarkable results. The HVG-commissioned poll showed the governing Fidesz-KDNP coalition at 54% support, slightly higher than the 52% their party list received in the election, while the opposition stood at 34%, a decrease compared to their joint party list result of 36%.
Fidesz’s lead expanded to 57%, however, when respondents were asked which party they would vote for in “a soon-to-be-held election.”
But Our Homeland experienced a similar growth in support: after winning 5.88% of the party list vote, the far-right upstart party won over 9% of eligible voters, 8% of voters who have chosen a specific party, and 8% of the total voting population.
Support for Our Homeland among the entire population is just 1% higher than that of the Democratic Coalition, and 2% ahead of Momentum’s 6% support, although these differences are still within the margin of error. In addition, Our Homeland President László Toroczkai is the third-most popular politician among the entire voting population.
Medián notes that the phenomenon of Our Homeland’s rise is very similar to what was seen after Jobbik’s result in the 2009 European elections. At that time, Jobbik gained popularity after passing a certain threshold of support, as more people began to find it acceptable to openly express their sympathy for the formerly far-right party. [444]
This is an important article. It appears that the current opposition -at present- is unable to to dent Fidesz’s strength. What is more concerning is that Fidesz, “Our Homeland” and the “formerly far right party”, Jobbik are clearly dominating Hungarian politics. Perhaps “Hungarian Politics” might address the why’s of this development, let alone possible strategies to break out off this dead end. More and more, the politics in Hungary today reminds me of the Horthy period where Horthy looked “moderate” for a time compared to a range of Hungarian fascists. Then as now, liberals counted for very little albeit there were certainly many distinguished liberals at that time, as there even today.
Some articles have mentioned a phenomenon apparently seen after elections – “pulling to the winner.” That could be responsible for much if not all of the increase in Fidesz support.
Thanks Steven. In psychology, what you commented on is sometimes called the “bandwagon effect” and as you commented, may explain some of what is going on. “Group think” is related to this phenomenon and may be an additional explanation.Regardless of psychological and/or other explanations, Hungary is stuck-at present- with an unfavorable prognosis. Let’s hope for better times (and work toward as you are doing).