In this close race, those who are certain of which party they will vote for are likely to take part in the election, which makes undecided voters even more important. Opinions about governing suggest that the opposition has a higher ‘reserve’ stored up among undecided voters. The question is whether these voters will go to the polls or not on April 3.
–writes the Republikon Institute in the executive summary to its new report.
According to research conducted by the institute over the past three months, 51% of undecided voters are planning to go to the polls, while 34% said they would definitely be going.
Republikon’s analysis breaks down typical characteristics of Hungary’s undecided voters:
- The size of a settlement does not play a part in determining where undecided voters are found.
- Among women, their proportion is slightly higher (60-40).
- Many of them are younger: 37% of undecided voters are under 40, and only 28% are over 60.
- Level of education is an important factor: 51% of undecided voters have just a primary education, and 29% have a high school degree. Their proportion of college graduates is lower than average.
By definition, undecided voters do not choose a party, but answers to the question “Should the government stay or leave?” can provide a sense of which political side they will commit themselves to on election day.
In a 5,000-person Závecz poll conducted in January 2021 cited by Republikon, half of all undecided voters chose to answer the aforementioned question, with results showing that more of them open to the opposition (38%) than to the ruling party (12%).
In another large-scale survey, it turned out that undecided voters and those not wishing to reveal their party preferences were more angry at the entire elite than at the Orbán government specifically.