A government led by either Fidesz or the united opposition would face difficulties if the far-right Our Homeland Movement manages to get representation in Parliament, concludes think tank 21 Research Center in its latest study.
If the party of László Toroczkai can win 4-5 mandates in the National Assembly, then the united opposition forces would have to beat Fidesz by at least 5 percentage points to form a new government, they find.
But if the opposition coalition were to beat Fidesz by only 1-5% in this scenario, Our Homeland could hold the balance of power in Parliament. And if Fidesz wins the election outright or the opposition’s win is less than 1%, Fidesz could be expected to form a government again.
Incidentally, if Our Homeland does not get any seats in Parliament, 21 Research Center believes that United for Hungary opposition’s victory would have to be at least 3% over Fidesz in order for it to set up a new government, presumably due to built-in structural features in the current electoral system.
Although recent public opinion polls show that Our Homeland has not been able to reach the minimum 5% threshold to gain a parliamentary mandate on its party list, it has still been able to significantly increase its support over the past few months thanks to its anti-vaccination campaign.
Based on data from the Iránytű Institute from October-December last year, 21 Research Center found that:
- There were many more men in Our Homeland (57%) than in the general population (47.5%)
- Far fewer of them were over 65 (11%, compared to 30% in the general population), but they are particularly strong in the 40-49 age group
- Only 14% of the party’s supporters have a higher education degree (compared to 21% of the total population)
- 45% of their supporters work in skilled labor
- Only 13% of their supporters are from Budapest, while 18% of the country lives in the capital.
55% of Our Homeland voters want to see a new government in power, but more prefer current Prime Minister Viktor Orbán over his challenger Péter Márki-Zay (by 37% to 23%). Recent polls appear to show that the party has managed to attract a greater number of voters sympathetic to the government in recent months.
One note of caution in interpreting the data is that since Our Homeland voters still make up a small proportion of the electorate, the statistical margin of error is higher than usual.
Toroczkai has already ruled out forming a coalition with either the opposition or Fidesz. However, 21 Research Center points out that in opposition-led municipalities, Our Homeland generally joins Fidesz in criticizing the local mayor, but tends to be on better terms with towns that have Fidesz leadership, citing examples in the towns of Dombóvár and Mezőkövesd.