Ruling parties Fidesz-KDNP lead 4 percentage points among certain party voters, 48-44%, over the united opposition coalition, according to the latest poll conducted by the IDEA Institute between January 4-14.
Among all voters, the Fidesz-KDNP list leads by 2 percentage points, 39-37%, over the joint list of the six cooperating opposition parties. Support for the opposition decreased by 1% compared to December, while Fidesz-KDNP’s support increased by 1%.
Compared to when the primary elections were held in October 2021, support for the opposition parties has decreased by 2-3% overall. The far-right Our Homeland Movement also lost 1% support in recent days, while the proportion of uncertain voters increased by the same amount. Those who have a party preference but did not wish to share it remains at 8%.
Though still within the margin of error, the biggest movement was with certain party voters, the most engaged group in the election that excludes those who did not provide their party preferences. While Fidesz-KDNP was previously up by just 1% over the opposition, the governing parties have now expanded their lead with this group to 4% in the latest poll.
Both the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party and the Our Homeland Movement would each receive a 3% share of the vote if it were held this Sunday.
The proportion of respondents not providing their party preferences was 25%, the lowest level since the start of the coronavirus epidemic. This group includes those who are unsure who they will vote for, those who have a party preference but do not want to share it, and those who definitely do not plan to vote.
The IDEA Institute conducted its research between January 4-14, 2022 through data collection on the entire Hungarian web and on social media with a self-completed online questionnaire (CAWI). The final result of the study is representative of the country’s adult population in terms of gender, age, and region. The margin of error for the sample of 2,000 respondents is within 2.2% for the baseline distributions.