Fidesz leads the entire voting age population by 5 percentage points ahead of the opposition coalition, according to a recent December survey commissioned by HVG and conducted by polling company Medián.
According to the poll, the opposition’s momentum appears to have waned since holding the primaries: after the two sides were tied in October, Fidesz is now up 5% against its rivals among all voters. Moreover, 63% of all voters believe that Fidesz will win re-election, which even includes 32% of opposition supporters.
Overall, 39% of the electorate would vote for the Fidesz-KDNP list, and 34% would vote for the united opposition list. But the two camps are nearly equally matched among likely voters, with 44% voting for the Fidesz-KDNP list and 45% supporting the opposition. Outside of these two camps, the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party is at 6%, while the Our Homeland Movement has 5% support among likely voters.
The poll also shows that there are sharp divisions between socio-demographic groups. Among the higher educated, those who are wealthier, and those under 40, the opposition is vastly ahead. However, the vast majority of lower-earning Hungarians, those with lower levels of education, and those living in smaller settlements would vote for the Fidesz-KDNP list.
Summarizing the results, Endre Hann, Director of Median (pictured), said that with only three months to go before the elections:
The majority of Hungarians feels that ‘all things considered in the country,’ things are going in the wrong direction. Only Fidesz supporters think differently, but even a tenth of them, 12%, are pessimistic.