A new poll finds that a common list of opposition parties is still preferred by the entire population, but Fidesz-KDNP is again favored by party voters who definitely intend to vote in elections next year.
Based on a survey conducted between October 26 and November 5, 2021, the Idea Institute found that the direct effect that the opposition primaries had on forming public opinion had passed.
At the end of October and the beginning of November, the joint list of the six cooperating opposition parties led Fidesz-KDNP by only 1 percentage point among the total electorate, with the opposition at 39% and the government party at 38%. Compared to the previous month, there was no movement for Fidesz, while support for the united opposition parties decreased by a single percentage point.
At the same time, there has been a shift among likely voters, the most active group in the election. While the opposition and Fidesz-KDNP had equal levels of support from this group in polls conducted during the primaries, the situation had reverted to prior levels of support by the time Idea conducted its latest poll.
In the new poll, the ruling party is once again leading by 3 percentage points due to the highly active, well-mobilized and determined Fidesz voter camp. As as result, support for the Fidesz party list by active voters increased by 1 percentage point, while support for the opposition list fell by 2 points.
Although both changes in this narrow constituency are within the margin of error, the direction of movement indicates that the effect that the primary elections had on the electorate is over, claimed the institute.
Hungarian society will face particularly fierce political competition in the coming months,
added the Idea Institute.