21 Research Center considers it unlikely that the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) will actually get enough votes to gain representation in Parliament, but they took at look at how it would affect the outcome of the election if it did happen. The party would need to gain at least 5% of the vote in the April 3 parliamentary elections to do so.
If MKKP manages to get into Parliament, both the opposition and the government can be expected to receive two fewer seats, so not only the opposition, but even Fidesz will find it more difficult to form a government. It could even happen that MKKP will be the balance of power in such a situation.
-writes 21 Research Center in a new study looking at the impact of the MKKP.
The Research Center estimates that if neither MKKP nor Our Homeland get into Parliament, then the opposition coalition will need to win the election by at least 3 percentage points to gain the absolute majority of seats needed to form a government.
But if the Dog Party gets into Parliament, the six-party coalition will then need to win the election by at least 4-5 points to do the same.
Due to structural elements of the Hungarian hybrid electoral system, Fidesz could form a government even if it loses by 2-3 percentage points, meaning the opposition would need to win by at least 3 percentage points – but only if these two political forces get into Parliament.
These calculations change if a third party also enters the picture.
While MKKP will make it harder for the opposition to attain a majority if it gets into Parliament, the better the party does, the harder it will be for Fidesz to gain a majority. If MKKP manages to get 6% of the vote, for example, then Fidesz can only gain an absolute majority of seats if it loses the election by 1% at most.
However, 21 Research Center believes it more likely that MKKP won’t get into Parliament, considering that:
- Opinion polls show an average of just 3% support for the party, with a low margin of error;
- turnout is key, but a smaller proportion of MKKP supporters have indicated they would definitely vote compared to Fidesz or opposition voters, and the party also struggled with getting endorsement signatures in many places;
- they have no candidate in 27 individual races. Without a candidate, experience has shown that support for a party’s list is also low.
Who are MKKP voters?
The Dog Party’s electorate is younger and has a higher level of education than the average of the entire population:
- only 25% have just a primary education, compared to 42% in the total population;
- only 6% of them are over 65, but they are overrepresented in the two youngest age groups: 66% of them are aged 18-39, compared to 33% in this age range in the total population;
- 25% of MKKP’s voters are from Budapest, compared to 17% of all voters.
The study also shows that 60% of the party’s voters want a new government in Hungary, and just one in five voters want the current government to remain.
More than twice as many Dog Party voters would choose Péter Márki-Zay for prime minister over Viktor Orbán.
21 Research Center based its analysis on national survey data gathered by the Iránytű Institute in October, November, and December of 2021. The entire database has 5,000 items, of which 246 were MKKP voters.
[Azonnali][Photo: MKKP representative speaks on Hungarian public television]