The opposition’s primary elections did not solve all of its problems, but they were able to alter the political situation so that two major forces will now face off in the 2022 elections, said political analyst Gábor Török on ATV’s Egyenes Beszéd.
On the opposition’s choice of Peter Márki-Zay as its prime ministerial candidate, Török said that it is conceivable that he could be replaced, but it would be political suicide for the opposition to do so. It was no accident that Márki-Zay won the primary election, he said, so he sees little chance of this occurring.
But the analyst thinks Márki-Zay will struggle with trying to keep a group of 6-7 parties united during the campaign, as there is no united opposition per se, but several opposition parties with disparate interests.
In general, Gábor Török is pessimistic on the opposition winning the general election in April. While the united opposition list is neck-and-neck with Fidesz-KDNP in the polls, the ruling coalition’s massive advantage in areas such as political activity, organization, funding, and communication means that the opposition does not have much of a chance on paper.
As to the question of whether the bribery accusations of Fidesz politician Pál Völner could have an effect on undecided voters, he mentioned the intense media interest in the corruption scandal of Socialist politician Gábor Simon in 2014. Journalists even showed up in front of Simon’s house, and the issue influenced the election result in favor of Fidesz.
While Fidesz built its 2014 campaign on Gábor Simon and consciously focused on the topic every day in its messaging, Török said that there had not been nearly as much focus on Völner by the opposition.
By comparison, look at what the opposition has published about the Völner case: zero, as if it were summertime news with no value.
-stated Gábor Török. While one side has a powerful propaganda factory that puts out highly-aware, relentless, and consistent communication, the other side is running a divisive, back-and-forth, and impotent political campaign at the moment. That may change in the next few months, but from what he has witnessed so far, the analyst believes the performance of the two sides are not even comparable.
Despite this, Török says that Fidesz’s fundamental situation is much worse than ever, yet they are able to construct a plausible narrative. Moreover, since Fidesz also has access to massive resources, “I think it would be a huge surprise if the opposition were to win under such circumstances,” he ventured. If it were to occur, he said that it would be because of support from the electorate and not due to any political results.