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Tag: Republikon Institute

Undecided voters appear to lean opposition, but will they come out to vote?

picture of woman voting

In this close race, those who are certain of which party they will vote for are likely to take part in the election, which makes undecided voters even more important. Opinions about governing suggest that the opposition has a higher ‘reserve’ stored up among undecided voters. The question is whether these voters will go to the polls or not on April 3.

writes the Republikon Institute in the executive summary to its new report.

According to research conducted by the institute over the past three months, 51% of undecided voters are planning to go to the polls, while 34% said they would definitely be going.

Republikon’s analysis breaks down typical characteristics of Hungary’s undecided voters:

  • The size of a settlement does not play a part in determining where undecided voters are found.
  • Among women, their proportion is slightly higher (60-40).
  • Many of them are younger: 37% of undecided voters are under 40, and only 28% are over 60.
  • Level of education is an important factor: 51% of undecided voters have just a primary education, and 29% have a high school degree. Their proportion of college graduates is lower than average.

By definition, undecided voters do not choose a party, but answers to the question “Should the government stay or leave?” can provide a sense of which political side they will commit themselves to on election day.

In a 5,000-person Závecz poll conducted in January 2021 cited by Republikon, half of all undecided voters chose to answer the aforementioned question, with results showing that more of them open to the opposition (38%) than to the ruling party (12%).

In another large-scale survey, it turned out that undecided voters and those not wishing to reveal their party preferences were more angry at the entire elite than at the Orbán government specifically.

[444]

Republikon: election could be decided at the last moment

image of poll results

With just a little over a month before Hungary’s parliamentary elections on April 3, a new Republikon Institute poll shows that the competition between the two main political contenders is still very tight.

Among the all voters, support for ruling Fidesz-KDNP and the opposition alliance in February both fell by 1 percentage point since the previous month, with the former now at 40% and the latter gaining 39% support.

The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) also dropped a point to 2% among all voters, with the Our Homeland Movement going up a point, from 2% to 3%. The proportion of undecided voters also increased, and now stands at 16%.

When undecided voters are excluded, the poll shows Fidesz with 48% support and the United for Hungary opposition coalition at 46%. In this group, MKKP and Our Homeland each get 3% support:

Party voters: those who know which party they will vote for
Fidesz-KDNP – United for Hungary – Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party – Our Homeland

Republikon summarized its findings by noting that there had been little change in the balance of power between the two main political forces. If there is no major change in developments in the next month, then Hungary’s parliamentary elections will likely be decided at the last minute, the think tank argues.

Will there be a prime ministerial debate?

The Republikon Institute also examined how important voters think a debate would be between Viktor Orbán and Péter Márki-Zay, the two main candidates for prime minister from the ruling party and leading opposition coalition, respectively.

Nearly two-thirds of all voters responded that it was important to have such a debate, the poll revealed. One-third of Fidesz voters held this position, while 92% of United for Hungary supporters agreed as well.

Among undecided voters, 66% were in favor of a prime ministerial debate, with 19% believing it wasn’t necessary.

“How important is it to hold a prime ministerial debate before the elections?” – All voters
Very important – Somewhat important – Somewhat not important – Not at all important – No answer

Republikon’s poll was taken between February 18-24, with 1,000 respondents interviewed by telephone, and results balanced by age, gender, location, and educational attainment. Their margin of error is +/- 3.2%.

A little over a week ago, Publicus published a poll showing United for Hungary with a slight lead over the governing Fidesz-KDNP parties.

[Index][Images: republikon.hu]

Republikon: majority of Fidesz voters want Hungary to join eurozone

picture of newly printed euros

Over half of Fidesz-KDNP supporters, 51%, want to see Hungary adopt the euro as official currency if it meets the necessary conditions, while two-thirds of opposition voters, 67%, feel the same way, according to an analysis by the Republikon Institute using January data from Eurobarometer and Závecz Research Institute.

However, 40% of those who support the ruling party and 25% of opposition sympathizers are not in favor of ditching the forint in favor of the joint EU currency.

Despite overall support for the idea, the vast majority of respondents, 67%, believe that Hungary is not ready to join the bloc of nations that use the euro as legal tender. But 64% expect the euro to have an overall positive effect on Hungary once it does, even though 50% of poll respondents think it will lead to higher prices. Only 3% thought that prices might fall, and 41% expected prices to remain steady after the euro is adopted.

Regarding how long it would take for Hungary to join the eurozone, the largest group of respondents, 42%, felt that it could be possible within ten years, while 26% thought it could happen within five years.

However, a similar proportion of 26% are of the belief that Hungary will never adopt the euro as its official currency.

[Népszava]

Fidesz head of state nominee Katalin Novák more disliked than liked

picture of Katalin Novák

Sixty percent of Hungarians in a new poll would prefer the head of state to be chosen through a direct election, and only 32% wanted Parliament to continue to elect the nation’s president, reported Telex on recent polling by the Republikon Institute. The think tank’s latest poll interviewed 1,000 people by telephone between January 19-24.

Regarding Fidesz’s nominee for head of state, Katalin Novák (pictured), 77% of respondents offered an opinion of the former minister for family affairs. The survey found that 46% of respondents had a favorable opinion of her, while 54% did not. The article claims that although Katalin Novák’s favorability does not exceed the popularity of her party, she cannot be considered a particularly unpopular politician.

The Republikon poll also found that among voters who had to choose a party, Fidesz-KDNP and the United for Hungary opposition coalition would each get 47% of the electorate, while the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party and Our Homeland would likewise gain 3% support each.

Another key finding in the poll was that as the election gets closer, the number of uncertain voters has started to significantly decrease, from 24% in the previous poll to 14% now among the entire population.

[Magyar Hang]

Corruption not a major problem, say 98% of Fidesz voters

picture of woman shrugging

Only 18% of opposition voters believe corruption is the biggest problem today, according to a new Republikon poll as reported by Népszava. A higher proportion, 20%, said the cost of living was too high, and just over 20% said that wages were too low.

By comparison, 30% of Fidesz voters said that the cost of living was too high, and 23% were troubled by low pay. Barely 2% of them felt that a high level of corruption existed.

A high proportion of opposition supporters think the quality of health care in Hungary is low, and 10% of them called the destruction of democratic norms in Hungary as the country’s most serious problem. However, far fewer of them mentioned the migration of skilled labor aborad as a problem compared to Fidesz voters.

Interestingly, around 2-3% of supporters of the opposition coalition mentioned that we do not do enough to protect the environment and combat climate change, while 7-8% of Fidesz voters felt the same way. Similar proportions of both camps felt that pensions were too low, between 8-12%. They also agreed on the extent of societal differences between men and women, with 2-3% of them stating that the biggest problem today was that these differences were too great.

The poll also measured how much voters in each camp agreed to statements on a five-point scale. As to whether corruption had become much more significant since 2010 than before, political opposition supporters gave the statement 4.5 points, while Fidesz voters only scored it 2.3.

However, many among the latter group said that there was corruption in the country, but it was outweighed by the positive aspects of a Fidesz government. Pro-government voters gave 3.5 points to this statement on average, while it was only 2.7 for those identifying as opposition supporters.

[Magyar Hang]

United opposition still leads Fidesz in latest Republikon poll

silhouette of person voting

The united opposition list is still ahead of Fidesz by 36-33% in the general population and 48-43% among party voters, according to a new poll by the Republikon Institute.

The research institute talked to 1,000 people between December 9-14, just days after the corruption scandal with Fidesz MP and State Secretary Pál Völner broke out.

The 5-point difference between party supporters is important, as most experts tend to think that the opposition needs at least that much of an advantage to defeat Fidesz due to the gerrymandering of districts and extra votes coming from the ethnic Hungarian minority in neighboring countries, which overwhelmingly vote for the government parties.

The current data show that Fidesz has increased its support, with the ruling party gaining 2% over a month ago among the entire population and party voters.

On the opposition side, DK’s support has begun to rise after months of decline, while Momentum did as well, although it’s increase is still within the margin of error. Meanwhile, Jobbik’s popularlity remains in a slump, although it continues to be the second strongest party in the six-party coalition.

Looking at the opposition parties one-by-one, their support among party voters breaks down accordingly:

  • DK – 16%
  • Jobbik – 10%
  • Momentum – 9%
  • MSZP – 7%
  • Our Homeland – 4%
  • LMP – 3%
  • Dialogue – 3%
  • Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party – 3%

Out of this group, Our Homeland and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party are not part of the united opposition coalition, but plan to run their own candidates independently in next spring’s general elections.

[HVG]

Party preferences mostly static in latest Republikon poll

picture of poll results

Support for Fidesz and the united opposition parties declined slightly in November, with the popularity of DK and Jobbik declining slowly for the past few months, according to the latest monthly poll from the Republikon Institute.

The institute’s survey shows that the Momentum also weakened slightly last month, while smaller parties appear to be gradually catching up.

Among the general population, support for government party Fidesz stands at 31%, a decline of one percentage point. Likewise, DK, Jobbik, and Momentum also lost one point each, with DK now at 11%, Jobbik at 8%, and Momentum at 6% of those polled.

MSZP and Dialogue both retained their previous levels of support at 5% and 3%, respectively, while LMP and Our Country also continue to have 2% support each among the general population.

The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) gained a point to capture 3% of those polled. But those who would vote for non-specified “other parties” polled at 3% as well. Undecided voters, meanwhile, grew from 24% to 26% among the general population in the latest Republikon Institute poll.

The political institute found that after the opposition’s primary elections in the fall, Hungary’s larger political parties had lost some support, to the gain of smaller parties and the group of undecideds. As previous polls have shown, the entire opposition camp taken as a whole continues to poll higher than government party Fidesz.

Republikon’s party preference poll was conducted by telephone with 1,000 Hungarian adults between November 17-23, balanced by gender, age, education, and location, and with a margin of error of 3.2%.

[Telex][Image: republikon.hu]