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Tag: Publicus

A Quarter of Hungarians Think Russia is Defending Itself by Attacking Ukraine

In the past two months, the number of Hungarians who consider Russia the aggressor in the Ukrainian war has been steadily and significantly declining, according to a new Publicus Institute poll reported on by Népszava. In previous polls, 64% of respondents thought of Russia as an aggressor in early March, compared to only 58% at the end of March and 56% now.

The survey reveals that 25% of Hungarians believe that Russia was defending itself by attacking Ukraine and launching the war.

Moreover, the article points out that the number of people satisfied with the government’s response to the war thus far has gone from 60% to 66% over the past few months.

72% of respondents answered in the negative to the question: “Would you support sanctions against Russia if it meant you would have to pay more for your energy costs?” But the answers were highly dependent on political affiliation: only 6% of Fidesz supporters were willing to make any sacrifice large or small, while 61% of opposition voters would be willing to do so.

However, the poll showed that Hungarians still identify with Western values, with a strong 62% majority agreeing that “Hungary traditionally belongs to the West in terms of values, and must therefore strive towards the West in the future.”

Very few respondents (5-18%) agreed that it would be in Hungary’s interest for the country to get closer to Russia and away from the European Union and the United States. [HVG]

Publicus: Fidesz and opposition at 47% each

picture of man voting

The campaign for tomorrow’s parliamentary election has become as tight as possible, with ruling Fidesz-KDNP and opposition United for Hungary both able to count on 47% support for their party lists from voters who are certain which party they will vote for, in a new Publicus Institute poll commissioned by Népszava.

While other polls have also showed a close battle, even Publicus has not shown a tie between the two sides until now.

The polling company’s last survey before the election also revealed that the opposition had a 5% lead over the governing parties in terms of their intention to take part in the election. Regarding overall turnout, 76% of respondents said they would definitely be going to the polls, and a further 9% claimed that they probably would.

Among all voters, Fidesz stands at 35%, United for Hungary is at 33%, and 28% of voters are still undecided.

Publicus head András Pulai said that about 5-7% of voters would only decide at the last minute whether they will vote at all.

[444]

Publicus: a quarter of Fidesz supporters blame Ukraine for the war

picture of Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán

Nearly two-thirds of Hungarians (64%) believe Russia acted as an aggressor in its attack on Ukraine, according to a new representative Publicus Institute poll commissioned by Népszava. The research institute writes that uncertainty on the issue has been fueled by the Orbán government’s delay in acknowledging the attack as an act of aggression. The poll was conducted between March 7-11.

The results also show that pro-government voters have a divided view on the causes of the war. Less than half of Fidesz voters (44%) consider the Russian invasion of Ukraine as clear aggression, while a quarter blame the Ukrainians and a third did not offer an opinion.

On the other side, over 90% of respondents identifying as opposition voters condemn the Russian attack.

Only 14% of all respondents thought it was possible for the war to spread to Hungary. Opposition voters saw this as more likely than those in the pro-government camp.

However, there are large differences between how the two political sides view Viktor Orbán’s and his government’s relationship with Russia. 81% of those who sympathize with Fidesz felt there was no need for the Prime Minister to condemn Russia for attacking Ukraine more harshly than he has already done, while 90% of opposition voters strongly believed he should.

[Magyar Hang]

Majority of Fidesz supporters say Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine

picture of civilians fleeing Ukraine war

Eight out of ten Hungarians believe that Russia had no legitimate right to attack Ukraine, according to a recent representative poll conducted by Publicus Institute after the outbreak of hostilities in Hungary’s northeastern neighbor.

Broken down by party, 91% of opposition voters do not think Russia had a legitimate right to attack Ukraine, while 64% of Fidesz voters feel the same way. A large majority of undecided voters, 72%, likewise did not think the attack was justified.

The poll also showed that 70% of respondents agreed at least somewhat that Russia had attacked Ukraine as the aggressor. This opinion was shared by 94% of those supporting the United for Hungary opposition list, 62% of undecided voters, and even a majority (56%) of Fidesz voters.

In addition, nearly every second person (47%) interviewed said that Viktor Orbán had pursued a pro-Russian foreign policy orientation at least somewhat over his past 12 years in power. This view was broadly shared by opposition-leaning voters, four out of ten undecided voters, and every fifth Fidesz supporter.

In terms of Hungary’s future foreign policy direction, 49% of Hungarians believe that in light of the current war between Russia and Ukraine, the country’s foreign policy should be more oriented towards the West.

An overwhelming majority of opposition voters (88%) agreed with this view, while just under half of undecided voters felt the same. However, only 18% of Fidesz voters want Hungary to pursue a more pro-Western foreign policy orientation.

[Magyar Hang]

Publicus: two-thirds of Hungarians say their gov’t serves Putin’s interests

picture of Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin

Left-leaning Publicus Institute conducted a poll commissioned by MEP István Ujhelyi on what Hungarians think about their country’s foreign policy and relationship with other countries.

The institute interviewed 2,006 Hungarians in a nationwide, representative study between February 3-14, prior to the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine.

The key results of the poll were the following:

  • 67% of those polled agreed at least somewhat with the position that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his government were destroying European unity in the interests of Russian President Putin, thereby threatening the security of Europe and Hungary. Nine out of ten opposition voters felt this way, but only one in ten Fidesz voters said it was true.
  • 53% said that the current foreign policy pursued by the Hungarian government primarily serves the interests of Russia. One year earlier, only a quarter of respondents agreed with this sentiment.
  • 84% held peace and cooperation among Member States as very important among the EU’s values.
  • 82% agreed that Hungary traditionally belongs to the West in terms of its values, and so must maintain a westward orientation.
  • 71% disagreed at least somewhat that it would be in Hungary’s interest to forge closer ties to Russia and distance themselves from the European Union and the United States.
  • 88% of respondents agreed at least somewhat that Hungary’s membership in NATO meant security for the country, and that cooperation in the Western defense alliance was of paramount importance.

The full results of the poll are on Publicus’ website.

[Telex]

United for Hungary has slight lead over Fidesz in latest Publicus poll

picture of Péter Márki-Zay

If parliamentary elections were held this on Sunday, 34% of Hungarians would vote for the United for Hungary opposition alliance and 32% for the currently-governing Fidesz-KDNP coalition, according to the latest Publicus poll of 1,000 respondents commissioned by Népszava.

Conducted between February 10-14, the poll gives a slight advantage to the opposition, though still within the margin of error. Even with this lead over Fidesz, the united opposition likely still wouldn’t win any extra seats in Parliament due to distortions in the electoral system.

The poll also showed 2% in favor of Our Homeland, 1% support for the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party, and 30% of respondents undecided about their party preference.

Which party or organization would you vote for on April 3, 2022?
(from left) Fidesz-KDNP, United for Hungary, Two-Tailed Dog Party, Our Homeland Movement, other, undecided
[source: publicus.hu]

Breaking down the undecided voters, 27% of this group said that they would prefer a new government in power, while 17% were satisfied with Fidesz in government. The remaining 56% did not offer an opinion on this question.

In the latest public opinion polls measuring party preference, the Publicus poll shows the most favorable result for Hungary’s political opposition. Most other recent polls have given Fidesz a lead over its opponents.

[444]

Katalin Novák viewed as more divisive than current president

picture of Katalin Novák

The public sees Katalin Novák (pictured) as more divisive than the current head of state, János Áder, reports Népszava based on a new poll by the Publicus Institute. In addition, three-quarters of Hungarians prefer a president that is independent and non-partisan.

Governing party Fidesz has nominated Novák as its candidate to replace departing President János Áder, and the former minister for families is expected to easily win the March 10 vote in Parliament to be Hungary’s next head of state. For its part, the united opposition also announced earlier this week that its nominee for the post was economist Péter Róna.

The Publicus poll also revealed that only 18% of the population think it is acceptable for Hungary’s president to be a faithful supporter of a single party. However, right-wing voters are much more tolerant of this notion, with 42% of them approving of it, while nearly all opposition supporters reject it. Even 83% of undecided party voters do not agree that the head of state should be strongly partisan.

Half of the respondents consider current President János Áder to be a divisive or slightly divisive politician, but 40% of them claim he has perfomed his duties in a way that have promoted unity. However, opposition sympathizers have a more mixed opinion of Áder, and practically none of MSZP’s voters evaluated his work positively, according to the poll.

[HVG]

Hungarians even view public transportation through a political partisan lens

picture of Budapest buses

Public transportation is apparently yet another topic that Hungarians think about on the basis of party preferences, according to a poll conducted by the Publicus Institute of 1,108 people contacted by telephone between December 6-10.

Commissioned for daily Népszava, the survey revealed that 82% of opposition voters would consider it acceptable to stop traffic in the capital for some time to protest government austerity measures, although 39% would support the measure only if it did not affect or impede traffic. However, this option was completely rejected by 98% of pro-government voters.

The standard model of public transportation in Western Europe, in which one-third of transportation costs are paid by the state, another third by the local municipality, and a third by passengers, was viewed as undesirable by 59% of pro-government voters and 71% of opposition voters.

As to who was at fault for Budapest public transportation not having enough funds, 80% of pro-government supporters blamed the capital and Mayor Gergely Karácsony, while 75% of opposition voters said the Fidesz government and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán were responsible.

Only 4% of pro-government voters and 6% of the opposition said that the Budapest Transportation Company (BKV) and its holding company BKK were to blame for the lack of funds in the capital’s public transportation system.

[444]

Publicus: united opposition has lost support, but still leads over Fidesz

picture of Publicus logo

On the heels of an internal poll leaked to news portal 444.hu that shows ruling party Fidesz with a decisive lead, Publicus Institute has come out with a poll of its own. Commissioned by Hungarian daily Népszava, Publicus’ research reveals that the united opposition still holds a slight lead over the governing coalition.

According to the 444 story, opposition party chairs had received unpublished polling results on Wednesday which showed 46% support for Fidesz-KDNP but only 32% for the joint opposition party list.

Népszava notes, however, that the 444 article did not disclose, among other things, when the data was collected, what the exact questions were, or how the research was conducted. The 14-point difference would also be an outlier, considering that other pollsters have found a much closer race in recent days, with many showing the united opposition ahead.

Conducted in late November, the latest Publicus Institute poll is in line with other recent polls, showing 36% support for the opposition list and 32% going to Fidesz-KDNP.

András Pulai, head of the Publicus Institute, told Népszava that the opposition’s advantage had decreased slightly, but the race was still wide-open. The pollster noted that the opposition’s decline was understandable given that they had maximized their resources during the primary election campaign, but, he said, “they are collecting signatures for the referendum, which could give them momentum.”

The research also revealed that the vast majority of respondents would head to the polls if voting was held this Sunday. 96% of Fidesz and Democratic Coalition (DK) voters both said they would show up to vote, but Jobbik (95%) and MSZP-Dialogue (89%) supporters were not far behind. Broken down by location, 88% of Budapest residents and 82% of those living in county seats claimed they would cast a vote this weekend, but even two-thirds of small-town inhabitants said the same.

Fidesz remains the most popular political party in Hungary with 31% support, while the strongest opposition party is DK at 11%.

Among parties with single-digit support, the MSZP-Dialogue ticket attracts 8%, Jobbik gets 6%, Momentum is at 4%, and LMP-Hungary’s Green Party and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party garner 1% each. And although it’s not actually a political party, Péter Márki-Zay’s Everybody’s Hungary Movement has 2% support from the public.

Interestingly, Publicus also notes that 7% of respondents would not vote for any individual opposition party, but would support the opposition coalition list. Finally, the opposition leads 17-10% among uncertain voters, while the ruling party has a 37-33% advantage among retirees.

[Népszava]

Publicus: few Hungarians take Gattyán’s political bid seriously

picture of György Gattyán

A large number of people have heard that György Gattyán (pictured) is considering a bid to run in next year’s Parliamentary elections, but not many seem to take the political intentions of Hungary’s third richest person seriously, according to a new poll by the Publicus Institute commissioned by Népszava.

A majority 59% of respondents said that they had heard of Gattyán’s thoughts of running, but 45% see his political ambitions as just “a rich man’s whim,” and only 9% of them take it seriously. A whopping 46% either could not or did not want to answer this question at all.

In addition, few respondents seemed to trust György Gattyán’s political motivations. Only 5% think that running for office was Gattyán’s own idea and that his intentions are sincere, but over four times as many, 22%, were of the opinion that “Fidesz is behind him one way or another, with the goal of causing confusion.” Supporters of the political opposition were particularly sympathetic to this view.

One-quarter of the respondents suspects some other unnamed reason for Gattyán’s political interest in the background, while 48% of them did not give substantive response.

The internet entrepreneur has recently appeared on public billboards around Hungary to promote a new venture, but is remaining vague about politics, and thus no one knows what the 51-year-old Gattyán’s real intent is.

The most important plank of his platform is a package of proposals to promote digitalisation in Hungary, such as in the field of digital education. Gattyán is looking for current parties to help him implement these policies, but plans to create his own if he has to.

The Hungarian billionaire said in an interview with Forbes that he already had a registered party, but he refused to reveal the name of the party or anyone notable who might be associated with it.

[Telex][Photo: A Legnagyobb Vallalkozas / Facebook]