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Tag: Medián

Medián: Far-Right Our Homeland Now the Biggest Opposition Party

Median’s first opinion poll after the election on party preferences showed some remarkable results. The HVG-commissioned poll showed the governing Fidesz-KDNP coalition at 54% support, slightly higher than the 52% their party list received in the election, while the opposition stood at 34%, a decrease compared to their joint party list result of 36%.

Fidesz’s lead expanded to 57%, however, when respondents were asked which party they would vote for in “a soon-to-be-held election.”

But Our Homeland experienced a similar growth in support: after winning 5.88% of the party list vote, the far-right upstart party won over 9% of eligible voters, 8% of voters who have chosen a specific party, and 8% of the total voting population.

Support for Our Homeland among the entire population is just 1% higher than that of the Democratic Coalition, and 2% ahead of Momentum’s 6% support, although these differences are still within the margin of error. In addition, Our Homeland President László Toroczkai is the third-most popular politician among the entire voting population.

Medián notes that the phenomenon of Our Homeland’s rise is very similar to what was seen after Jobbik’s result in the 2009 European elections. At that time, Jobbik gained popularity after passing a certain threshold of support, as more people began to find it acceptable to openly express their sympathy for the formerly far-right party. [444]

Fidesz Voters Say Zelensky and USA More Responsible for War Than Putin

Fidesz voters prefer Putin to Western leaders, according to a Medián poll commissioned by 444.

On a 100-point scale, Hungary’s pro-government camp gives Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin the highest ratings among political leaders, 56 points and 47 points, respectively. Pope Francis is the only foreign leader who gets even higher marks from this group.

In addition, Fidesz supporters hold Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (74 out of 100 points) and the United States (75 out of 100 points) more responsible for the war in Ukraine than Vladimir Putin (70 out of 100 points).

The ratio is reversed among supporters of the political opposition. These voters blame Putin the most for the war (93 points), but they also say Viktor Orbán’s foreign policy (47 points) bears more responsibility than the Ukrainian leadership (39 points). [Telex]

Medián: opposition likely to sweep Budapest

picture of Péter Márki-Zay and opposition leaders

The united opposition has a 14-point lead over ruling party Fidesz in Budapest, according to a new Medián poll. Hungary is set to go to the polls in two-days’ time to elect 199 representatives to the country’s National Assembly.

Medián’s latest poll was conducted in parallel with a separate survey published on Wednesday showing Fidesz with a dominating lead nationwide. Few respondents from the Hungarian capital were included in the national poll, they wrote.

The 1,000-person representative sample of voters was conducted between March 23-28 based on an “omnibus”-type survey, which showed the following level of support for each party in the capital:

  • United for Hungary coalition – 43%,
  • Fidesz-KDNP – 29%,
  • Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party – 6%,
  • Our Homeland – 3%.

Additionally, 19% of Budapest voters were either unable or unwilling to say who they planned to voter for, although 85% said they were planning to cast a vote, indicating a higher level of voter intent than the national average.

The polling company noted that although the survey did not take a look at each individual electoral district, the data suggest that it does not seem unrealistic for the joint opposition to make a clean sweep of all 18 electoral districts in Budapest.

Medián’s poll also asked respondents about mayoral preferences, with results showing that 50% of voters would re-election current Mayor Gergely Karácsony, while 31% would vote for a generic Fidesz candidate.

Karácsony’s support in the poll conforms with the 50.86% of the vote share that he won in the 2019 mayoral election, and is also a major improvement on his 35% level of support in 2020.

A similar 19% of respondents answered that they were either not sure of or wouldn’t say who they preferred as Budapest mayor when presented with the two options above.

[HVG]

Election hasn’t been decided yet, says pollster Hann

picture of Endre Hann

“It’s clear that the election is still in doubt,” said Endre Hann, director of polling company Medián (pictured), to news portal 444.

The site noted that Medián’s polls are typically among the most reliable, such as when they indicated in the week before the 2018 election that Fidesz could end up with two-thirds of seats in Parliament.

Hann said that the race appears closer now than it did four years ago, when the issue was whether the governing party would reach a two-thirds margin of victory.

The pollster considers Fidesz more likely to win, but he thinks this can’t be definitively predicted yet. There haven’t been many polls, he states, because the media doesn’t have money to conduct them.

The primary elections last fall were a huge success for the united opposition, but there has been more volatility in the electorate since then. Fidesz has strengthened its position, but at the moment it’s hard to determine how much of an effect the war has had on voter intent.

One can sense that the Prime Minister was put in an embarrassing position, but Hann claims that it took less than a week for him to find the right tone.

The situation is uncertain, Hann said, as it is not known how well the opposition can convey the message that there has been a shift in tone on the issue of Hungary’s Russian-friendly orientation, which Orbán should be held accountable for. At the same time, a sense of security, stability, and reassurance are very important to people, and the means to generate these feelings are mostly in the hands of those in power.

Reacting to Viktor Orbán’s March 15 speech claiming that Fidesz had never been in such good shape before an election, Endre Hann said that there were convincing studies that argue the Prime Minister is confident because he knows his polling numbes truly are good, while others argue he is worried because they are trending against him.

In any case, the pollster sees a huge battle to try to turn out the vote for the rest of the election campaign.

[Magyar Hang]

Medián: support for Fidesz has increased since the start of the war

picture of Viktor Orbán speaking

Hungary’s political opposition has not seen a breakthrough with the increased pace of the election campaign, and the currently-governing parties have benefited more from the news of war breaking out in Ukraine, reports an article in hvg360.

A new Medián poll shows that the escalation of events in Hungary’s northeastern neighbor both before the war and after it began has led to higher support for the ruling Fidesz party.

Before war broke out last week, the Fidesz-KDNP alliance had a 4% advantage over its rivals as it was distributing huge social welfare benefits, such as personal tax refunds and a 13th month pension for retirees.

But this has grown to a 12% lead since the start of the Ukrainian war, while the opposition coalition United for Hungary has lost 2% of its support since December. Likewise, the proportion of undecided voters in the entire electorate has grown from 13% to 20%.

Expectations of the united opposition’s chances have also declined: in December last year, 63% of Hungarians expected Fidesz to win the elections, but 67% now hold this opinion. Only 45% of opposition voters themselves are confident that their side will emerge victorious.

Support for smaller political parties also declined, with Our Homeland and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party moving even further away from the minimum 5% threshold needed to obtain a parliamentary mandate from the party list.

György Gattyán’s Solution Movement and Tibor Szanyi’s ISZOMM parties belong to the “also ran” category. (Moreover, Szanyi’s party did not even make the cut to appear on the second ballot for the elections.)

The demographic bases of support for each camp have not altered much: Fidesz-KDNP continues to enjoy strong support among the elderly, rural voters, the less-educated, and poorer strata of society, while the opposition’s base of support is among younger people, urban residents, college graduates, and those with higher than average incomes.

But Hungarians remain divided in terms of the direction the country is going. At the end of February, slightly more people thought the country was going in the wrong direction (47%) than those who felt it was going in the right direction (44%).

Medián’s poll was conducted between February 22-26 through interviews with a sample size of 1,100 people, determined as representative of the Hungarian population.

[Magyar Hang]

Fidesz up 5% against opposition in latest Medián poll

picture of Endre Hann

Fidesz leads the entire voting age population by 5 percentage points ahead of the opposition coalition, according to a recent December survey commissioned by HVG and conducted by polling company Medián.

According to the poll, the opposition’s momentum appears to have waned since holding the primaries: after the two sides were tied in October, Fidesz is now up 5% against its rivals among all voters. Moreover, 63% of all voters believe that Fidesz will win re-election, which even includes 32% of opposition supporters.

Overall, 39% of the electorate would vote for the Fidesz-KDNP list, and 34% would vote for the united opposition list. But the two camps are nearly equally matched among likely voters, with 44% voting for the Fidesz-KDNP list and 45% supporting the opposition. Outside of these two camps, the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party is at 6%, while the Our Homeland Movement has 5% support among likely voters.

The poll also shows that there are sharp divisions between socio-demographic groups. Among the higher educated, those who are wealthier, and those under 40, the opposition is vastly ahead. However, the vast majority of lower-earning Hungarians, those with lower levels of education, and those living in smaller settlements would vote for the Fidesz-KDNP list.

Summarizing the results, Endre Hann, Director of Median (pictured), said that with only three months to go before the elections:

The majority of Hungarians feels that ‘all things considered in the country,’ things are going in the wrong direction. Only Fidesz supporters think differently, but even a tenth of them, 12%, are pessimistic.

-wrote Hann.

[Telex]

Young Hungarians not buying government claim that West is in decline

picture of Euros

The vast majority of young Hungarians still believe that they can thrive much better in Western European countries, according to a new Median poll commissioned by HVG.

An overwhelming majority of young people believe that the quality of life in the West is far better than in Hungary in almost every respect, from economic development to the quality of human relations to the fight against corruption, the poll shows. The data also reveals that although Hungarians between 18-29 years old have a lot in common with the opinions of those aged between 30-39, Fidesz’s two-million-strong voter bloc still comprises a huge group.

Three-quarters of people in Hungary believe that their country is far behind the West in terms of quality of life, which means that even pro-government voters question the reality of Viktor Orbán’s mantra that “the West has lost its appeal in the eyes of Central Europe.”

The most satisfied with their lot are those who are unable or unwilling to criticize government measures. They typically have at least 8 years of education, a monthly household income of less than 100,000 Ft. (US $307), mostly live in small towns, and are retired, meaning they are most vulnerable. “These are the ones who have suffered over the last 10–12 years,” economist Péter Ákos Bod told HVG.

The middle class has also benefited significantly from government policies and has not experienced the austerity that other groups have had to endure. One might conclude that the affluent are then united in their enthusiasm for the Orbán government and the poor are in opposition, but the poll shows that this is far from the case.

[HVG]